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Championship 15 TZAAR, DVONN, LYNGK

41 replies. Last post: 2010-03-08

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Championship 15
  • FatPhil at 2010-01-08

    'ere you go, rororo…

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-08

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    I've been requested to follow dvonn.ch.15.1.1 by FatPhil

    Already completed matches:

    • Ray Garrison 2 - 0 Morten Mertner
    • Paavo Pirinen 2 - 0 mongoose
    • Paavo Pirinen 0 - 2 RoRoRo the Bot
    • Paavo Pirinen 2 - 0 colonelmoutarde
    • mongoose 0 - 2 Xander (xandern .BSW) <— upset!
    • mongoose 2 - 0 Allan Mertner
    • mongoose 2 - 0 Morten Mertner
    • mongoose 0 - 2 Talizess <— upset!
    • RoRoRo the Bot 0 - 2 mongoose
    • RoRoRo the Bot 2 - 0 Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)
    • RoRoRo the Bot 2 - 0 Allan Mertner
    • RoRoRo the Bot 0 - 2 Talizess <— upset!
    • colonelmoutarde 0 - 2 mongoose
    • colonelmoutarde 0 - 2 RoRoRo the Bot
    • Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW) 0 - 2 mongoose
    • Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW) 2 - 0 Allan Mertner
    • Aaron Bercovici 1 - 1 RoRoRo the Bot
    • Xander (xandern .BSW) 0 - 2 Paavo Pirinen
    • Xander (xandern .BSW) 2 - 0 RoRoRo the Bot <— upset!
    • Xander (xandern .BSW) 2 - 0 colonelmoutarde
    • Xander (xandern .BSW) 2 - 0 Morten Mertner
    • Allan Mertner 0 - 2 Paavo Pirinen
    • Allan Mertner 0 - 2 Xander (xandern .BSW)
    • Allan Mertner 2 - 0 Morten Mertner
    • Morten Mertner 0 - 2 Paavo Pirinen
    • Morten Mertner 0 - 2 RoRoRo the Bot
    • Morten Mertner 0 - 2 colonelmoutarde
    • Morten Mertner 0 - 2 Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)
    • Morten Mertner 0 - 2 Aaron Bercovici
    • Talizess 2 - 0 Xander (xandern .BSW)
    • Talizess 2 - 0 Morten Mertner

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 31/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1RoRoRo the Bot(2041)-0200212_2211390.03%0.01%2Xander (xandern .BSW)(1929)2-020__2_2210503.51%0.45%3Paavo Pirinen(2059)02-2___2_22104846.79%1.39%4mongoose(2031)200-02_2_2210380.87%0.35%5Talizess(1926)22_2-_____286225.31%0.88%6Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2053)0__0_-_2__2449.03%0.59%7Aaron Bercovici(1986)1_____-___231110.64%0.01%8Allan Mertner(1902)0000_0_-__220009Ray Garrison(1891)________-_2201.96%0.16%10colonelmoutarde(1834)0000_____-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-08

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Talizess 0 - 2 Paavo Pirinen

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 32/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1Paavo Pirinen(2069)-0222__2_22126464.16%1.65%2RoRoRo the Bot(2055)2-000212_2211430.01%0.01%3Xander (xandern .BSW)(1929)02-20__2_2210503.00%0.58%4mongoose(2031)020-02_2_2210380.77%0.37%5Talizess(1916)0222-_____28629.31%0.78%6Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2053)_0_0_-_2__2449.46%0.46%7Aaron Bercovici(1986)_1____-___23119.47%0.01%8Allan Mertner(1902)0000_0_-__220009Ray Garrison(1891)________-_2201.92%0.11%10colonelmoutarde(1834)0000_____-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-10

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • colonelmoutarde 0 - 2 Allan Mertner

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 33/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1Paavo Pirinen(2070)-0222_2__22126864.25%1.60%2RoRoRo the Bot(2067)2-000221_2211470.01%0.00%3Xander (xandern .BSW)(1929)02-20_2__2210542.99%0.56%4mongoose(2031)020-022__2210420.76%0.36%5Talizess(1916)0222-_____28629.11%0.80%6Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2053)_0_0_-2___2489.37%0.41%7Allan Mertner(1898)0000_0-__2244008Aaron Bercovici(1986)_1_____-__23119.74%0.00%9Ray Garrison(1891)________-_2201.90%0.14%10colonelmoutarde(1838)0000__0__-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-11

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • RoRoRo the Bot 2 - 0 Ray Garrison

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 34/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1RoRoRo the Bot(2068)-200022122213510.02%0.01%2Paavo Pirinen(2070)0-222_2__22126864.61%1.68%3Xander (xandern .BSW)(1946)20-20_2__2210583.73%0.65%4mongoose(2031)200-022__2210460.80%0.42%5Talizess(1916)2022-_____28669.47%0.76%6Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2053)0__0_-2___2489.06%0.43%7Allan Mertner(1898)0000_0-__2244008Aaron Bercovici(1986)1______-__23139.55%0.01%9Ray Garrison(1883)0_______-_2200.82%0.07%10colonelmoutarde(1838)0000__0__-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-14

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Allan Mertner 0 - 2 Talizess

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 35/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1RoRoRo the Bot(2046)-200022122213510.01%02Paavo Pirinen(2070)0-222_2__22127262.19%1.77%3Talizess(1931)20-22_2___2107414.64%1.17%4Xander (xandern .BSW)(1961)200-2_2__2210582.97%0.46%5mongoose(2031)2000-22__2210460.43%0.25%6Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2053)0___0-2___2488.40%0.36%7Allan Mertner(1883)000000-__2244008Aaron Bercovici(1986)1______-__23138.61%09Ray Garrison(1883)0_______-_2200.80%0.06%10colonelmoutarde(1826)00_00_0__-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-15

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Allan Mertner 0 - 2 Talizess

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 35/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1RoRoRo the Bot(2046)-200022122213510.00%02Paavo Pirinen(2070)0-222_2__22127262.16%1.73%3Talizess(1931)20-22_2___2107414.96%1.11%4Xander (xandern .BSW)(1960)200-2_2__2210582.76%0.47%5mongoose(2031)2000-22__2210460.37%0.29%6Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2053)0___0-2___2488.42%0.34%7Allan Mertner(1883)000000-__2244008Aaron Bercovici(1986)1______-__23138.61%09Ray Garrison(1883)0_______-_2200.79%0.04%10colonelmoutarde(1826)00_00_0__-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-17

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • mongoose 2 - 0 Ray Garrison

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 36/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1RoRoRo the Bot(2046)-200022122213510.01%0.00%2Paavo Pirinen(2070)0-222_2__22127662.57%1.95%3mongoose(2040)20-0022_22212500.50%0.29%4Talizess(1931)202-2_2___2107815.28%1.22%5Xander (xandern .BSW)(1960)2020-_2__2210622.91%0.45%6Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2053)0_0__-2___2487.81%0.43%7Allan Mertner(1883)000000-__2244008Aaron Bercovici(1986)1______-__23138.55%0.00%9Ray Garrison(1874)0_0_____-_2200.25%0.06%10colonelmoutarde(1827)000_0_0__-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-17

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW) 0 - 2 Xander (xandern .BSW)

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 37/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1RoRoRo the Bot(2047)-20002212221351002Paavo Pirinen(2070)0-222_2__22128066.10%1.95%3Xander (xandern .BSW)(1980)20-2022__2212707.78%0.87%4mongoose(2040)200-022_22212500.16%0.16%5Talizess(1931)2022-_2___2108215.24%1.22%6Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2033)0_00_-2___2480.12%0.09%7Allan Mertner(1883)000000-__2244008Aaron Bercovici(1986)1______-__23138.22%09Ray Garrison(1874)0__0____-_2200.24%0.04%10colonelmoutarde(1827)0000__0__-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-21

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Paavo Pirinen 2 - 0 Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 38/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1Paavo Pirinen(2094)-022222__22148883.67%1.91%2RoRoRo the Bot(2043)2-0002212221355003Xander (xandern .BSW)(1969)02-2022__2212701.62%0.74%4mongoose(2040)020-022_22212500.02%0.04%5Talizess(1931)0222-_2___210827.31%1.13%6Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2020)0000_-2___248007Allan Mertner(1883)000000-__2244008Aaron Bercovici(1986)_1_____-__23135.31%09Ray Garrison(1874)_0_0____-_2200.16%0.02%10colonelmoutarde(1827)0000__0__-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-23

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Ray Garrison 2 - 0 Paavo Pirinen <— major upset!

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 39/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1Paavo Pirinen(2070)-0222022_22148860.36%1.69%2RoRoRo the Bot(2047)2-0002221221359003Xander (xandern .BSW)(1969)02-20_22_2212707.38%0.59%4mongoose(2040)020-0222_2212540.11%0.25%5Talizess(1931)0222-__2__2108218.51%0.86%6Ray Garrison(1898)20_0_-____24281.15%0.12%7Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2020)0000__-2__248008Allan Mertner(1883)00000_0-_2244009Aaron Bercovici(1986)_1______-_231310.77%010colonelmoutarde(1827)0000___0_-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-29

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Ray Garrison 0 - 2 Xander (xandern .BSW)

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 40/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1Paavo Pirinen(2078)-2022022_22149261.28%0.65%2Xander (xandern .BSW)(1959)0-220222_22147811.26%0.01%3RoRoRo the Bot(1992)20-002221221359004mongoose(2040)002-0222_221254005Talizess(1931)0222-__2__2108616.93%0.65%6Ray Garrison(1885)2000_-____242800.01%7Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2020)0000__-2__248008Allan Mertner(1875)00000_0-_2244009Aaron Bercovici(1986)__1_____-_23139.87%010colonelmoutarde(1818)0000___0_-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-30

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Talizess 2 - 0 colonelmoutarde

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 41/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)1Paavo Pirinen(2078)-2022022_22149658.62%0.62%2Xander (xandern .BSW)(1929)0-202222_2214788.06%0.01%3RoRoRo the Bot(2034)20-002221221359004Talizess(1940)022-2__2_22129022.56%0.62%5mongoose(2040)0020-222_221254006Ray Garrison(1885)200_0-____24280.01%0.01%7Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2020)000_0_-2__248008Allan Mertner(1875)00000_0-_2244009Aaron Bercovici(1986)__1_____-_231310.13%010colonelmoutarde(1767)00000__0_-2200011Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-01-31

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Paavo Pirinen 2 - 0 Aaron Bercovici

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 42/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(dem)1Paavo Pirinen(2089)-20220222221610287.50%0.34%02Xander (xandern .BSW)(1949)0-202222_2214780003RoRoRo the Bot(2014)20-0022212213630004Talizess(1940)022-2__2_22129010.55%0.34%05mongoose(2040)0020-222_2212540006Ray Garrison(1885)200_0-____24320045.57%7Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2020)000_0_-2__2480039.83%8Allan Mertner(1875)00000_0-_22440097.14%9Aaron Bercovici(1975)0_1_____-_23131.60%017.95%10colonelmoutarde(1767)00000__0_-2200099.50%11Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000100.00%p(prom) is the probability of promotion to the next higher league

  • Paavo Pirinen at 2010-02-02

    I'm guessing Aaron is Dropping out of the competition…

    It's all about Talizess, Ray and Klaus then. Suspense!

  • XanderN at 2010-02-03

    Aaron is still playing. Very unfortunately (especially for me ;-) that he let your (=Paavo's) game time out, as the game could have gone either way and could have decided the tournament.

    According to Rororo, only Talizess can still take the first spot away from you (Aaron cannot, as his game against me is lost)

    Xander

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-02-04

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Aaron Bercovici 0 - 2 mongoose

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 43/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Paavo Pirinen(2079)-22020222221610686.68%0.71%02Xander (xandern .BSW)(1949)0-220222_2214820003mongoose(2051)00-2022222214600004RoRoRo the Bot(2018)200-022212213630005Talizess(1940)0222-__2_22129412.61%0.71%06Ray Garrison(1885)2000_-____24320038.99%7Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2020)0000__-2__2480030.48%8Allan Mertner(1894)00000_0-_22440094.69%9Aaron Bercovici(1921)0_01____-_23130036.60%10colonelmoutarde(1767)00000__0_-2200099.23%11Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000100.00%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the bottom 4. and thus being demoted

  • XanderN at 2010-02-05

    RoRoRo / Phil, the bottom 6 will be demoted, not just the bottom 4. By default, we have 9 players in a championship tournament. Only if new players join the championship with a high rating, we can have more than 9 players (the new players jump directly to the level which seems correct according to their rating). When that happens, we have additional players that are being demoted. Only the top 5 remain. (We can have an exception to this rule in case players ending in the top 5 withdraw from the tournament)

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-02-06

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Xander (xandern .BSW) 2 - 0 Aaron Bercovici
    • Ray Garrison 2 - 0 Aaron Bercovici
    • Aaron Bercovici 0 - 2 Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)
    • Talizess 2 - 0 Aaron Bercovici

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 47/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Paavo Pirinen(2079)-22200222221611877.59%002Xander (xandern .BSW)(1963)0-02222222216960003Talizess(1947)02-22__22221410422.41%004mongoose(2051)000-222222214680005RoRoRo the Bot(2018)2000-22212213710006Ray Garrison(1902)20_00-__2_2638005.05%7Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2025)00_00_-22_2614005.19%8Allan Mertner(1894)00000_0-_22440092.44%9Aaron Bercovici(1739)0000100_-_23130098.90%10colonelmoutarde(1767)00000__0_-2200098.42%11Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000100.00%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the bottom 4. and thus being demoted

  • FatPhil at 2010-02-06

    Hmmm, OK, I can't quite see a simple rule that covers all the sizes I've seen. If streetsoccer leagues of 19 promote 5 and demote 10, then I think I've cracked it, but I didn't think that was the case.

    9 : 2 3 (5) 4

    11 : 3 2 (5) 6

    19 : 5 4 (9) 10

    $promote=($numplayers+1)»2;

    $demote=$promote*2;

  • XanderN at 2010-02-06

    Well, I have seen a lot of Dvonn leages so far. The default rule is 2 promoting from each lower level and 4 demoting from each level. However, if for some reason the top level contains more than the normal 9 players, more are demoted. See for example the 7th Dvonn league. We were with 10, and 5 were demoted (you can see that the 5th from the bottom, Aristobulus, ended up in the 8th league, 2nd level)

    Same for league 5 and 6 with 10 players.

    League 4 had a massive 12 players in the top league, with as a result 7 demotions.

    Your rule would therefore be: demote=(size of current league group)-((default size of league+1)/2).

  • ypercube at 2010-02-06

    FatPhil, i've explained it before I think:

    2 go up, 3 stay, the rest (4 or more) go down

    In StreetSoccer:

    4 go up, 6 stay, the rest (9 or more) go down.

    No exceptions.

  • FatPhil at 2010-02-07

    OK, I didn't realise that it the sizes are designed both to converge to 9, and also to deviate from that by the introduction of new players. (the former is probably because of the latter.) Hopefully the new implementation is correct.

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-02-07

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Aaron Bercovici 0 - 2 colonelmoutarde

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 48/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Paavo Pirinen(2079)-22200222221612277.12%002Xander (xandern .BSW)(1941)0-022222222161000003Talizess(1947)02-22__22221410822.88%004mongoose(2051)000-222222214720005RoRoRo the Bot(2021)2000-2222121375004.76%6Ray Garrison(1902)20_00-___226380095.24%7Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2025)00_00_-2_2261400100.00%8Allan Mertner(1894)00000_0-2_24800100.00%9colonelmoutarde(1790)00000__0-224600100.00%10Aaron Bercovici(1656)0000100_0-231300100.00%11Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000100.00%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the bottom 6. and thus being demoted

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-02-09

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Aaron Bercovici 0 - 2 Allan Mertner

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 49/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Paavo Pirinen(2079)-22200222221612677.09%002Xander (xandern .BSW)(1931)0-022222222161040003Talizess(1947)02-22__22221411222.91%004mongoose(2051)000-222222214760005RoRoRo the Bot(2027)2000-2222121379004.70%6Ray Garrison(1902)20_00-___226380095.30%7Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2025)00_00_-2_2261800100.00%8Allan Mertner(1899)00000_0-22261400100.00%9colonelmoutarde(1793)00000__0-224600100.00%10Aaron Bercovici(1603)000010000-231300100.00%11Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000100.00%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the bottom 6. and thus being demoted

  • Paavo Pirinen at 2010-02-11

    > i've explained it before I think:

    > 2 go up, 3 stay, the rest (4 or more) go down

    > No exceptions.

    After the last championship Morten, Colonelmoutarde, Xander, Klaus, me and Aaron all stayed up here. I was tied on both score and son with Aaron and we were the worst (like … the baddest) of the bunch.

  • ypercube at 2010-02-11

    Yes, when there are ties (in both Score and Son) then you are treated as if you had the best place of the tied.

  • ypercube at 2010-02-11

    So, ties in place 2 tend to push more players to the upper division.

    Ties at place 5 tend to keep more players in the division.

    Withdrawals tend to less players in a division.

    Wild cards (from ratings) tend to boost players to higher divisions (this has not been always working but seems to be the case during the last years).

    When a division is to have less players than it needs (less than 9 in 1st divsion, less than 18 in 2nd division, etc) then players from the immediate lower division go up (due to rating or position, not sure).

    (the numbers should be adjusted for StreetSoccer where the groups have usually 19 insteed of 9 players)

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-02-18

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • colonelmoutarde 1 - 1 Ray Garrison
    • colonelmoutarde 0 - 2 Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 51/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Paavo Pirinen(2084)-22202022221613278.34%002Xander (xandern .BSW)(1958)0-022222222161120003Talizess(1947)02-22__22221411421.66%004mongoose(2051)000-222222214840005RoRoRo the Bot(2087)2000-2222121387002.44%6Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2032)00_00-_222282800100.00%7Ray Garrison(1898)20_00_-_1227430097.56%8Allan Mertner(1899)000000_-22261600100.00%9colonelmoutarde(1816)00000010-2251300100.00%10Aaron Bercovici(1603)000010000-231300100.00%11Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000100.00%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the bottom 6. and thus being demoted

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-02-21

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Ray Garrison 0 - 2 Talizess

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 52/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Paavo Pirinen(2084)-22202022221613660.35%002Talizess(1960)0-222_222221612839.65%003Xander (xandern .BSW)(1971)00-22222222161120004mongoose(2051)000-222222214840005RoRoRo the Bot(2092)2000-22221213870006Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2032)0_000-_222282800100.00%7Ray Garrison(1885)20000_-_12274300100.00%8Allan Mertner(1899)000000_-22261600100.00%9colonelmoutarde(1817)00000010-2251300100.00%10Aaron Bercovici(1603)000010000-231300100.00%11Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000100.00%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-02-24

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW) 2 - 0 Ray Garrison

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 53/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Paavo Pirinen(2084)-22202022221614061.06%002Talizess(1960)0-222_222221612838.94%003Xander (xandern .BSW)(1971)00-22222222161160004mongoose(2051)000-222222214880005RoRoRo the Bot(2092)2000-22221213910006Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2041)0_000-22222104200100.00%7Ray Garrison(1876)200000-_12274300100.00%8Allan Mertner(1883)000000_-22261600100.00%9colonelmoutarde(1817)00000010-2251300100.00%10Aaron Bercovici(1603)000010000-231300100.00%11Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000100.00%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

  • zwack at 2010-02-24

    Hmm… Talizess's chances of winning sure have fallen based on the result of that irrelevant game between Klaus and Ray. I think RoRoRo is reporting higher accuracy than it actually has. IIRC, it runs something like 10000 simulations? If that's the case, the probability that he's off by more than .1% (let alone .01%) in the variance-minimizing case where there are just two opponents with equal ratings is really good.

    perl -M'Math::CDF qw(pbinom)' -le 'print 2 * pbinom(4989, 10000, .5)'

    0.833668978844017

  • zwack at 2010-02-25

    Sorry – just to be less cryptic, the above shows the odds of getting either fewer than 4990 heads or more than 5010 heads in 10000 fair coin flips to be 83.4%

  • ypercube at 2010-02-25

    You are probably correct but a small drop in Talizess's chance was expected. His only remaining game is against Klaus who now (because he won that irrelevant game) has a higher rating than during the previous calculations.

  • FatPhil at 2010-02-25

    Bingo! And it's 50000 simulations, for reference (which makes street soccer quite strenuous!).

  • RoRoRo the Bot at 2010-03-06

    Tournament: dvonn.ch.15.1.1

    Newly completed matches:

    • Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW) 2 - 0 Talizess

    Num Players: 11

    Games completed: 54/55

    NPlayerRating1234567891011ScoreSonp(win)p(draw)p(down)1Paavo Pirinen(2090)-222020222216144100.00%002Talizess(1948)0-222022222161280003Xander (xandern .BSW)(1997)00-22222222161200004mongoose(2051)000-222222214920005RoRoRo the Bot(1967)2000-22221213950006Klaus (GoKlaus@BSW)(2053)02000-22222127400100.00%7Ray Garrison(1876)200000-_12274300100.00%8Allan Mertner(1874)000000_-22261600100.00%9colonelmoutarde(1817)00000010-2251300100.00%10Aaron Bercovici(1603)000010000-231300100.00%11Morten Mertner(1971)0000000000-0000100.00%

    p(down) is the probability of being in the places 6-11 and thus being demoted

  • XanderN at 2010-03-07

    Congratulations to Paavo!

  • FatPhil at 2010-03-07

    Seconded. Top three very close, so he can't rest on his laurels.

  • Ray Garrison ★ at 2010-03-07

    congrats Paavo!

  • Paavo Pirinen at 2010-03-08

    Thanks!

    A win by son, so yes, the top three played practically equally strong (well played, guys!). I was the lucky one. And as far as I can see, not a single previous champion was playing…

    Still, a win is a win and I'll sure savor it.

  • ypercube at 2010-03-08

    Yes, you won them both, so you are the champion :)

    Congrats Paavo!

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